About time someone got backup right

Lower Taxes, Increasing the Deficit or WWIII

Posted by Chet Nichols on Oct 2nd, 2009 and filed under Feature. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. You can leave a response or trackback to this entry

21st-century-new-deal

UPDATE:  The article was linked in several comments to Robert Reich’s article.  As of 11:40 CST on October 3rd, they have since been deleted.  Looks like we struck a nerve with HuffPo by proving Mr. Reich wrong.  Otherwise, why would they hide this information from their readers by deleting it?

Pass it along!

Over at the Huffington Post, Former Secretary of Labor Robert Reich submitted an article from his blog titled “The Truth About Jobs that No One Wants to Tell You.”  In summary, he believes that we should forget about the debt and allow the government to spend at will to create jobs.

I have to admit, after reading his first statement, I thought to myself that this guy hasn’t got a clue if he thinks we will hit double-digits next year…we’re already there!  But as I continued to read, I saw were he was going and I agree…with the first two paragraphs.  Basically, he is saying that the unemployment rate of 9.8 percent is only for those who are currently on the unemployment rolls.  It does not take into account the ones who have exceeded their benefits, are not trying anymore, are working part-time, etc.  My bad for jumping to conclusions.

Unemployment will almost certainly hit double-digits next year — and may remain there for some time. And for every person who shows up as unemployed in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ household survey, you can bet there’s another either too discouraged to look for work, or working part-time who’d rather have a full-time job or else taking home less pay than before (I’m in the last category, now that the University of California has instituted pay cuts). And there’s yet another person who’s more fearful that he or she will be next to lose a job.

I am with him so far.  But the following paragraph gives me pause, and takes me back a little.  Is it just me, or is he eluding to racism here?

Unemployment of this magnitude and duration also translates into ugly politics, because fear and anxiety are fertile grounds for demagogues weilding the politics of resentment against immigrants, blacks, the poor, government leaders, business leaders, Jews, and other easy targets.

Seems to me that the Democrats are putting these “false” targets out there and passing the buck on to the Republicans.  However, we expect that, so what Mr. Reich did is nothing new for someone of his morals and beliefs.  But nonetheless, he has some good points below:

…people who are worried about their jobs or have no jobs, and who are also trying to get out from under a pile of debt, are not going do a lot of shopping. And businesses that don’t have customers aren’t going do a lot of new investing…without customers, companies won’t hire. They’ll cut payrolls instead.

This is were things really get good.  Admittedly, I am a little surprised that a man of his education and background would answer his own question with the answer he gave.  Surely he doesn’t believe the government, broke as it is, is the only entity that can get us out of this mess…does he?

Which brings us to the obvious question: Who’s going to buy the stuff we make or the services we provide, and therefore bring jobs back? There’s only one buyer left: The government.

Let me say this as clearly and forcefully as I can: The federal government should be spending even more than it already is…We did it during the Depression. It was called the WPA.

For those of you who do not know,  the Works Progress Administration (WPA) was the largest agency involved within FDR’s New Deal.  The agency was so big that it was attended by confusion, waste, and political favoritism.  Yet, according to Secretary of the Treasury to President Franklin D. Roosevelt — and key architect of FDR’s New Deal, Henry Morgenthau Jr, the New Deal did not work.  As quoted by Henry Morgenthau Jr, an instrumental participant in setting up the WPA:

“We have tried spending money.  We are spending more than we have ever spent before and it does not work. … We have never made good on our promises … I say after eight years of this Administration we have just as much unemployment as when we started. …. And an enormous debt to boot!”

The preceding statement is a direct quote by Henry Morgenthau Jr, the individual responsible for setting up the WPA.  Apparently Mr. Reich doesn’t pay much attention to history, as he goes on to state:

Yes, I know. Our government is already deep in debt. But let me tell you something: When one out of six Americans is unemployed or underemployed, this is no time to worry about the debt.

Perhaps Mr. Reich is right, maybe this is “…no time to worry about the debt.”  After all, we don’t have to pay it back immediately, right?  We’ll leave that ballooning credit (and compounding interest) to be collected when we are older, and pass it on to our children and grandchildren.  Let’s just put a band-aid on it for now, then pick the scab later after it is infected and allow the scratch become a mortal wound.

To use the principle of his headline, he is leaving out one terrifying truth, the one that most Americans may or may not realize.  The U.S. economy  boomed during WWI and WWII.  GDP for war related production was at 52 percent during WWI.  History repeated itself and GDP went from 2 percent to 40 percent during WWII.

To put this into perspective; the WPA was created in 1935 and was in full swing from 1939 to 1943.  Conveniently, the same time-frame as WWII.   Production of war related goods, and the jobs vacated by Americans going into the military is what put the American worker back to work.  But let’s continue with Reich’s premise:

…government has to spend more to get Americans back to work and recharge the economy. Then — after people are working and the economy is growing — we can pay down that debt.

That might work if we were involved in WWIII and a large portion of our GDP was related to production of war related goods.  But don’t count that out yet, as we just might end up in WWIII if our President keeps disregarding Israel and backing down from Iran.  Are you thinking what I am thinking here? A bone-chilling thought, I know. But I digress, as Reich has plenty more to say.

The numbers would be even worse but for the stimulus package. According to an analysis by the Economic Policy Institute, the stimulus is saving or creating between 200,000 and 250,000 jobs a month. Without it, job losses in September would have been nearly twice what they actually were.

There it is again, that unprovable claim of “saved or created” rhetoric that Obama came up with and the Left has relished.  However, I have yet to see one piece of factual data on this.  I am not talking about “he said” or “she said”.  I am talking about raw, empirical data that supports this claim.  If there is anyone out there who can show this true data from a reliable source like the CBO, please speak now…(crickets chirping)

State governments, meanwhile, continue to shed employees. Here’s one of the most depressing statistics I’ve seen (if you need any additional ones): Some 15,600 teachers didn’t return to work in September. They were laid off. So our classrooms are bigger, we have fewer teachers, and our students are presumably learning less — at the very time when they need to be learning more than ever.

Wait a minute, wasn’t the stimulus suppose to prevent that from happening?  Hmmmm…curious!!!

***Addendum: This morning’s job numbers are bad enough — 263,000 more jobs lost in September, and unemployment now at 9.8 percent — but look behind them and the news is even grimmer. The only reason the numbers don’t look worse is that 571,000 workers dropped out of the labor force. Remember, too, that the economy needs about 125,000 new jobs every month just to keep up with a growing population. So we’re even further behind.

And the stimulus was also supposed to prevent unemployment from reaching 8 percent too, according to President Obama.

Here is a thought that Reich doesn’t even entertain:  Quit taxing us to death.  Let me put it into elementary terms that even the former Secretary of Labor can understand (i.e., Secretary of the Treasury Tim Geithner not knowing how to use tax software).  Tax us less, we have more money, more money spent buying things, more revenue for business, business grows, jobs needed, workers put back to work, we have more money… and the cycle continues.  I wonder what  that would do for our economy, GDP and the deficit?  As far as government spending goes…pitch that in fantasy land because we sure don’t want the only other alternative…WWIII!

Articles of interest:

Coming:  The Economic W

Surrendering Sovereignty

Wonderful: State Dep’t already backing off Obama’s two-week deadline for Iranian nuclear inspections

5 Responses for “Lower Taxes, Increasing the Deficit or WWIII”

  1. PJ says:

    Chet:
    Yes, there is a cycle at work here. No, cutting taxes is not the one and only solution to all problems big and small, past present and future.

    Mr. Reich is well aware of Mr. Morgenthau bogus claims, and has addressed them, (I am sure you can check it out yourself) as have many other economists and historians.

    In the work/wealth cycle, it is work that creates wealth NOT the other way around. Certainly wealth can provide opportunities for more work, which can them create more wealth, but it is the WORK that is fundamental to wealth creation.

    Consider your WWI and WWII examples for a moment. Why did GDP grow rapidly during the wars? It is because people were WORKING and the government was spending TONS of money that we did not have. (creating a huge debt). During those time periods we created a huge amount of goods that had little or no value after the war (already fired bullets, exploded bombs have no real economic value). Contrast that to the WPA. The US Government borrowed money to put people to work. They made – Bridges, Tunnels, Schools, Parks, Monuments, Shelters, and other Public Buildings that we still use today. The WPA had an enormous positive effect on the economy and on our society, despite the protestations of Mr. Morgenthau. FDR’s big error was attempting to reign in the debt too soon. Ronald Reagan also used huge deficit spending to pull us out of a recession in the 80s. (yes Saint Reagan did that can you believe it!) George W. Bush and his Republican controlled congress engaged in HUGE deficit spending to pull us out of a recession in 2001, and then continued to spend like drunken sailors when it was no longer needed, while cutting taxes and running up an ENORMOUS debt.

    During the time that Reich was in Clinton’s cabinet – hmm lets see, unemployment declined to its lowest post WWII level ever, GDP soared WITHOUT artificial deficit spending, the deficit was reduced to below zero (we had a budget surplus). I am going to conclude that Reich knows what he is talking about here.

  2. Charo says:

    “Mr. Reich is well aware of Mr. Morgenthau bogus claims, and has addressed them”

    Yup, that about sums up all of PJ’s assesments. The left-wing idiots of today, know better than the actual achitechs of the past.

    oh, and I suppose you had a conversation with Mr. Reich, sense you are “well aware”…

    I envy you PJ…Ignorance is bliss!

  3. PJ says:

    Charo:

    Did you check it out? What are your thoughts. Is Morgenthau really right? Do any of his claims hold water at all?

  4. PJ says:

    And Charo – what do you think, is it work that creates wealth, or wealth that creates work. I know to some extent this is a chicken and egg question, but is there a fundamental answer here?

  5. PJ says:

    http://www.huppi.com/kangaroo/Timeline.htm

    After reviewing the time line – check out how GDP soars as deficit spending soars. The Government is putting people to work, first in the WPA then in WWII – notice how as Roosevelt tries to bring deficit spending under control to quickly in 37 a mild recession ensues.

    The offhand observations in Morgenthau’s diary are not consistent with the reality of how the New Deal pulled the country out of the depression. From 1933 to 37 unemployment declined year after year, only moving upward as the President moved to quickly toward balancing the budget.

Leave a Reply

Advertisement
Natalie Nichols for Bowie County Clerk on Facebook

Photo Gallery

Log in | © 2009 Political Integrity Now All Rights Reserved | Powered by Wordpress