How can the earth be warming, when temperatures have been dropping for over 11 years?
Some of our greatest forcasters and scientist can’t tell you for certain what the weather will be like next week, but global warming “experts” can tell you of a pending catastophic warming trends in the works because of CO2 emmissions?
From redorbit.com
On the scientific research front, most news headlines tend to be aimed at showing how global temperatures are on a steady upward climb, but one report published last week appears to reveal that those upward trends may not be entirely accurate.
In an October 9 BBC News story, climate correspondent Paul Hudson noted that the warmest year on record was not in 2008 or 2007, but in 1998.
The story goes on to state that no climate increase has been measured over the past 11 years, although emissions of carbon dioxide continue to rise.
The BBC story cited experts who claim that although the world has gone through decades of rapid warmth during the 20th Century, the earth operates on natural climate cycles, which man has no control over.
Additionally, experts have long debated whether the spikes in warming have been attributed to an increase in the Sun’s energy and that warming causes a rise in carbon dioxide levels, rather than the other way around.
For some scientists, there is the lingering possibility that the earth could be entering a period of global cooling, rather than the widely sensationalized warming trend.
BBC News cited a study published two years ago by the Royal Society.
In the study, scientists observed solar output and cosmic ray intensity over the past 30-40 years in order to contrast them against global average surface temperature.
“Warming in the last 20 to 40 years can’t have been caused by solar activity,” concluded Dr Piers Forster, a contributor to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
But the BBC story goes on to cite contradicting information from solar scientist Piers Corbyn, who works with long-range weather forecasting firm Weatheraction.
Corbyn uses Solar Weather Technique, which he touts to be “the most advanced and reliable long-range forecasting system in the world.”
His method uses predictable aspects of solar activity, primarily particle and magnetic effects from the Sun, to make long-range weather forecasts.
Using his method of research, Corbyn has concluded that solar charged particles are actually responsible for shifts in global temperatures.
And then there’s the story being told by the earth’s oceans.
BBC News cited information from Professor Don Easterbrook from Western Washington University last November.
Easterbrook’s research showed that the earth’s oceans are on a cyclic periods of warming and cooling.
He says the Pacific decadal oscillation was on a warming cycle during the 1980s and 1990s, which can be correlated with warmer global temperatures.
However, the PDO has begun to cool down in recent years, says Easterbrook.
“The PDO cool mode has replaced the warm mode in the Pacific Ocean, virtually assuring us of about 30 years of global cooling,” said Easterbrook.
So which story can the world rely on in terms of global warming or cooling?
Scientists at the Met Office claim that there will always be periods of slower warming and temporary cooling. However, the long-term global temperature trend is certainly up.
they can’t predict what exactly will happen, but I don’t know if you’ve noticed, weather predictions have gotten pretty darned accurate lately. And you know, I can predict with a fair amount of certainty that over the next few months, there will be an increase in precipitation and a drop in temperature. Am I amazing or what. Then in March, the temps will start to increase again and by July, I expect we’ll see some temps in the 90′s. And I’m not even a meteorologist! I think they know a lot about what’s happening right now and they know they don’t KNOW but man, if you heard a hurricane was heading towards your community, would you just sit back and say, “nobody can know for sure, I’m not going to change my behavior” or would you pack up and head for higher ground? I’d say we are getting the message loud and clear that SOMETHING is very likely to happen and it’s way worse than a hurricane. Are you going to use the “well nobody knows” as an excuse for being too lazy to make the necessary preparations/changes?
One more thing – did you read about how for the first time in history (recorded history), ships are able to navigate the North Pole? Ummm… the ice caps are clearly melting. What now??
Ignoring a few facts are you? First time in recent history? Do you have any facts on that?
Let’s check that out…shall we?
What happened in 2007
“The record melting of the passage comes two weeks after the NSIDC and two other ice-monitoring agencies in the U.S. and Japan declared that the Arctic Ocean ice cover has shrunk to its smallest size since regular satellite imaging of the polar cap began in 1979.”
“[A]nalysts at the Canadian Ice Service and the U.S. National Ice Center confirm that the passage is almost completely clear and that the region is more open than it has ever been since the advent of routine monitoring in 1972.”
The same passage was navigated between 1940 and 1942 when the St. Roch navigated the Northwest Passage, arriving in Halifax harbor on October 11, 1942.
In 1944, St. Roch returned to Vancouver via the more northerly route of the Northwest Passage, making her run in 86 days.
Oh, the passage was also navigated by Ronald Amundsen, a Norwegian explorer who successfully navigated the Northwest Passage on August 26, 1905.
I wonder how much CO2 affected “global warming” then?
Oh, while you are preparing for something massive that you know is going to happen, people all across the world are enjoying early snow fall at their favorite ski resorts open early due to unexpected cooling than normal temperatures and snow fall.
Darn that global warming!!!!
http://cdn.lastminute.com/lmn/banner/uk/aboutus_press/ski_resorts_open_early.doc
http://trib.com/news/state-and-regional/article_f8e303a6-6185-5804-857c-00edfe0c4457.html
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/travel/winter_sports/article5238245.ece
Most of this information came from here, with link to original articles.
Global warming, faster than in many previous decades, is real, but as to whether human-produced CO2 is the cause of all, most, or just much of the overall warming, I don’t know. But the warming itself is real, and it resembles trends in the past that kept going until they resulted in vast changes in global temperatures.
Please refer to this chart:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/globalwarming/images/temp-anom-larg.jpg
The chart shows that for about the past seven years (not ten), global temperatures ON AVERAGE (not just what happens in your local area) have not changed much, but the thing is, they’ve been sitting at a high plateau, higher than at any time in recorded history. There have been some variations in the past seven years, but that’s normal, and can be attributed to solar activity, dust levels in the atmosphere, and other factors. The key point is this: globally, average temperatures are not dropping to any significant degree–the chart shows that temperatures rise and fall, but on the whole are still going up–the chart shows no gradual downward trend, only an upward trend with spikes and troughs, with a temporary plateau for the past seven years.
Even if the average global temperature stayed at that plateau, remember it’s a relatively HIGH plateau compared to previous decades. You can leave an ice cube out on a sunny day, and check it again in ten minutes, and it will probably still be partially intact, but that doesn’t prove the ambient temperature isn’t sufficient to melt it any further. This is why the Arctic ice pack continues to shrink even though the average global temperature hasn’t increased in the past seven years.
Variations in the Arctic ice pack have taken place for a very long time–prior to the beginning of monitoring in 1972, opening up the Northwest Passage a few times, as Aaron points out above–but the average thickness of the ice, when it re-forms each year, has been much less in recent years, year after year, and the ice re-forms later and later each winter, and melts earlier and earlier each spring.
As the Arctic ice melts, the Antarctic ice has been growing gradually, and this has been cited by some who say it must prove we have nothing to worry about overall–but that growth is part of normal cyclic behavior, and will be followed by melting again, so relying only on recent figures to “prove” that temperatures are going down instead of up, is like saying since we still have winters, and sometimes cold ones, there can’t be any overall global warming. Also, variations in the Antarctic’s ice pack growth is largely caused by variations in the South Pole’s ozone layer, which is not expected to continue to cause cooling in the Antarctic for longer than about another ten years, after which the Antarctic ice is expected to follow the melting pattern we currently see in the Arctic:
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn16988
But I’ve saved the worst for last:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33482750/ns/us_news-environment/
In that article, the latest objective analysis of data backs up the idea that temperatures are still rising, and contrary to global warming deniers, that 1998 was NOT the hottest year on record, with all subsequent years trending downward–2005 was the hottest year. So, it hasn’t been all downhill since 1998–there was a very short dip after 1998, falling to a trough in 2000, after which temperatures rose again, until they temporarily plateaued, then rose again in 2005, and then went back down to that same plateau, where we are now. And that’s as reported by the AP, a conservative news organization that called for the analysis, probably hoping that it would find the opposite.
Here’s an example of another factor that can affect temperatures over vast areas of the globe, while at the same time not changing the gradual worldwide average increase in temperature:
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,511125,00.html
In that article, it’s explained that airborne dust from Africa affects the temperature of the Atlantic dramatically, and accounts for about two-thirds of the rise in temperature in the Atlantic, and thus it’s a large cause of increased hurricane activity and strength.